{"id":423,"date":"2026-07-03T13:22:12","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T13:22:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.journals.utgjiu.ro\/JES\/?post_type=articol&#038;p=423"},"modified":"2026-07-03T13:22:12","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T13:22:12","slug":"mortgage-market-dynamics-macroeconomic-shocks-and-financial-stability-evidence-from-romania","status":"publish","type":"articol","link":"https:\/\/www.journals.utgjiu.ro\/JES\/articol\/mortgage-market-dynamics-macroeconomic-shocks-and-financial-stability-evidence-from-romania\/","title":{"rendered":"MORTGAGE MARKET DYNAMICS, MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS AND FINANCIAL STABILITY: EVIDENCE FROM ROMANIA"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>t<br \/>\nThe mortgage credit market represents one of the most significant segments of banking activity, playing a crucial<br \/>\nrole in financial intermediation, household wealth accumulation, and economic growth. At the same time, excessive<br \/>\nmortgage lending may contribute to the build-up of systemic vulnerabilities and financial instability. Against the<br \/>\nbackdrop of increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, inflationary pressures, energy market volatility, and geopolitical<br \/>\ntensions, understanding the determinants of mortgage lending dynamics has become increasingly important for both<br \/>\npolicymakers and financial institutions.<br \/>\nThis study investigates the evolution of the Romanian mortgage credit market and examines its implications for<br \/>\nbanking sector stability over the period 2000\u20132025. The analysis focuses on the influence of key macroeconomic<br \/>\nvariables, including interest rates, inflation, household income, housing prices, and monetary policy conditions.<br \/>\nParticular attention is paid to the transmission channels through which external shocks, especially energy price<br \/>\nfluctuations and geopolitical disruptions, affect mortgage lending activity and financial stability.<br \/>\nUsing a descriptive and analytical research framework based on data provided by the National Bank of<br \/>\nRomania, Eurostat, and financial stability reports, the study identifies a cyclical pattern in mortgage market development<br \/>\ncharacterized by alternating phases of expansion, contraction, and recovery. The findings reveal a strong inverse<br \/>\nrelationship between interest rates and the volume of newly granted mortgage loans, while the outstanding stock of<br \/>\nhousing loans continues to demonstrate long-term growth. Furthermore, the results indicate that inflationary pressures<br \/>\nand energy-related shocks indirectly influence mortgage lending through their impact on monetary policy decisions and<br \/>\nborrowers\u2019 repayment capacity.<br \/>\nThe study concludes that the Romanian mortgage credit market remains highly sensitive to both domestic<br \/>\nmacroeconomic conditions and external disturbances. Consequently, prudent lending practices, effective risk<br \/>\nmanagement strategies, and continuous monitoring of systemic vulnerabilities are essential for maintaining financial<br \/>\nstability and supporting sustainable credit market development.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}}},"class_list":["post-423","articol","type-articol","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.journals.utgjiu.ro\/JES\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/articol\/423","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.journals.utgjiu.ro\/JES\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/articol"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.journals.utgjiu.ro\/JES\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/articol"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.journals.utgjiu.ro\/JES\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=423"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}