Financial Control and Risk Management at the Macroeconomic Level in the Context of Current Economic Uncertainties

The intensification of economic, geopolitical, and financial uncertainties in recent years has prompted a reassessment of the role of financial control at the macroeconomic level. In an environment marked by persistent inflationary pressures, substantial fiscal deficits, rising public debt, heightened financial market volatility, and a temporary weakening of economic growth prospects, public financial control can no longer be confined to its traditional function of verifying the legality, regularity, and compliance of public resource utilization. Instead, it is increasingly assuming a strategic role as an instrument for anticipating and mitigating macroeconomic imbalances, strengthening fiscal discipline, and safeguarding the long-term sustainability of public finances. This article examines the relationship between financial control and macroeconomic risk management, with particular emphasis on fiscal risk, sovereign debt risk, inflationary risk, external sector risk, and risks to financial stability. Particular attention is paid to the importance of integrating early-warning indicators, sensitivity analyses, scenario-based assessments, and fiscal stress-testing mechanisms into the financial control framework. Such instruments are essential for identifying emerging vulnerabilities, assessing the resilience of public finances to adverse shocks, and supporting timely corrective policy interventions. The case study focuses on the Romanian economy over the 2025–2026 period and highlights the need to strengthen financial monitoring, oversight, and control mechanisms against the backdrop of a persistent fiscal deficit, an upward trajectory of public debt, and a pronounced slowdown in economic activity. These developments increase the exposure of the economy to both domestic and external shocks and reinforce the need for a more integrated approach to fiscal surveillance and macroeconomic risk assessment. The findings underline the necessity of moving away from a predominantly retrospective model of financial control toward a preventive, forward-looking, and risk-based framework. Such an approach should be fully integrated into the formulation, implementation, and evaluation of macroeconomic policies, thereby contributing to improved fiscal resilience, enhanced policy credibility, and greater sustainability of public finances. The contemporary economic environment is characterized by a particularly high degree of uncertainty, stemming from persistent inflationary pressures, financial market volatility, geopolitical tensions, fluctuations in energy prices, changing financing conditions, and the rapid acceleration of digital transformation. These interconnected developments have significantly increased the complexity of economic and financial decision-making and have amplified the range of risks confronting public authorities and financial institutions. Within this context, financial control can no longer be regarded exclusively as a mechanism designed to verify the compliance, legality, and regularity of economic and financial operations. Rather, it should be embedded within a comprehensive risk management framework capable of identifying, assessing, monitoring, and mitigating vulnerabilities that may affect macroeconomic stability. Consequently, modern financial control is increasingly required to perform both a preventive and anticipatory function, supporting evidence-based decision-making and contributing to the resilience of the economy in the face of heightened uncertainty.