Access to Electricity and the Transition to Renewables in Rural Africa: Comparative Evidence from Statistical Data and Public Surveys

The paper analyses the dynamics of rural access to electricity in ten African countries (Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, Uganda, South Africa, Morocco, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Senegal, Zambia) over the period 2010-2022, using official statistical data and perceptions from public surveys. Correlations between the rural electrification rate, the share of renewable sources in the electricity mix and population size are examined. Descriptive results highlight significant differences between countries: from almost complete universalization in Morocco and high levels in South Africa, to accelerated but incomplete progress in Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia, and persistent gaps in Nigeria and Zambia. Regression estimates show a negative association between population size and access expansion, but also an inverse correlation between the high share of renewables and the degree of rural electrification - a result explainable by infrastructural constraints and historical peculiarities of the energy mix. The conclusions emphasize that the transition to renewables is not sufficient to increase access if it is not accompanied by investments in networks, distribution and off-grid solutions adapted to the local context. The paper makes a contribution by comparative mapping of progress and by quantifying the structural limitations affecting rural electrification, providing useful benchmarks for prioritizing public policies and international cooperation projects.